Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of Structural Changes in Monetary Policy on Turkish Economic Growth for the Period (1981–2025)

      Monetary policy and its instruments constitute the fundamental pillar for achieving economic stability, particularly in emerging economies facing persistent structural fluctuations. The problem of this study lies in the volatile effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools in Turkey amid high inflation and frequent structural breaks, raising a fundamental question about the most influential channel for productive activity. Accordingly, the study aims to measure and analyze the impact of structural changes in monetary policy instruments on economic growth in Turkey during the period (1981–2025). To achieve this, the research adopted the Indicator Saturation Method (ISM) for its ability to identify structural breaks and integrate them into the econometric model, while analyzing variables such as broad money supply, real interest rates, and exchange rates. The key results revealed a weak impact of the broad money supply on growth, in contrast to the pivotal role of the exchange rate channel as a primary driver of economic activity. Furthermore, the model identified significant structural breaks in (2003, 2011, and 2022), reflecting the impact of radical political and economic shifts. The study’s main conclusions and recommendations highlight the limited effectiveness of the "liquidity channel" in high-inflation environments. Therefore, the study recommends that monetary policymakers focus on exchange rate stability and real interest rate management as more efficient tools for stimulating sustainable growth and enhancing economic resilience to future shocks.